New Delhi, June 24 (IANS) India’s real gross domestic product growth will touch 6.6 per cent in FY27 amid energy stress, a sub‑par monsoon outlook and slowing global growth, a report said on Wednesday.
The report from S&P Global Ratings said consumer inflation in India is expected to rise to 5.1 per cent this fiscal year as manufacturers pass higher energy costs to consumers. alongside recent increases in administered prices for petrol, diesel and cooking gas.
The firm forecasted a policy rate hike in the second half of the year, adding that “with the current account deficit on the rise and the rupee weakening, the authorities took measures to encourage foreign capital inflows.”
These measures have strengthened the rupee visa-vis the US dollar to some extent, the report noted.
Asia‑Pacific outlook is shaped by resilient global activity, energy market stress and an AI‑driven tech export boom.
“The global economy seems to have persevered in the face of the Middle East conflict and resulting energy stress. The resilience has been supported by strong AI-related investment, especially in the US, and accommodative financial conditions,” the report said.
The impact of the energy stress is visible as input costs and suppliers’ delivery times have risen substantially.
“Higher fertilizer prices weigh on food production and raise food prices. Rising inflation is eroding purchasing power, thus depressing growth. Sharply higher fertilizer prices may weigh on food production and fuel food prices,” it added.
The firm’s baseline forecast assumes disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will gradually ease in the second half of the year. It expected global oil prices to remain elevated in the coming months and should ease gradually thereafter, returning to pre-crisis levels in early 2028.
Even as governments continue to reduce the impact of higher oil, prices on fuel product prices, higher costs of products and services, could push consumer inflation 0.5-0.6 ppts higher in the third quarter in China, India, and Japan, with 2026 year-average inflation 0.3-0.4 ppts higher.
—IANS
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